I've been predicting the Caldecott and Newbery Medal books for a while (okay, 2 years) and think I should give this year a shot before we all find out the answers in a few hours. I'm going to try to get these in just under the wire. The press conference is very, very early tomorrow and I have to wake up in a few hours. Did I mention it was early?
There's only one winner I'm going to guess outright... that the Lion and the Mouse by Jerry Pinkney will win the Caldecott Medal.
If it doesn't win... there will be gasps if it shows up as an honor and dead silence if a different book wins the medal. Pinkney has won five Caldecott honors and zero Caldecott Medals. But I don't think he should win just because of that (and actually the committee is specifically not allowed to take that into account.) I really think he illustrated the best book of the year, and that's why I hopes he wins.
Caldecott honors: Hard to predict. No clear favorites this year but a lot of possibilities. Here's a couple that may or may not show up on the list:
- Otis by Loren Long
- Alphabeasties by Sharon Werner (check this one out, it's very cool)
- All the World by Liz Garton Scanlon, illustrated by Marla Frazee
- Moonshot by Brian Floca (I'm not sure where this one will end up. Caldecott? Newbery? Siebert?)
- Christmas Magic by Lauren Thompson, illustrated by Jon Muth (this one will never end up on any of the lists, but it's my long shot favorite and well worth checking out)
- Where the Mountain Meets the Moon by Grace Lin (I would love to see this book win).
- When You Reach Me by Rebecca Stead.
- The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate by Jacqueline Kelly (could end up anywhere- either the medal or an honor)
- Crossing Stones by Helen Frost (also a possibility for the Printz).
- Claudette Colvin: Twice Towards Justice by Phillip Hoose (this one may end up winning the whole shooting match: the Newbery, the Siebert, the new YA non fiction award, etc. Or it will end up on a multitude of honor lists.)
- Mo Willems could win for the third year in a row, but I don't think so. (Although you never know). I predict an honor for him.
- Duck, Rabbit by Amy Krouse Rosenthal (a book that's gotten a lot of Caldecott buzz, but I think is more likely to win the Geisel or an honor.
- Rhyming Dust Bunnies by Jan Thomas (might be a surprise winner).
- Moonshot by Brian Floca
- Claudette Colvin: Twice Towards Justice by Phillip Hoose
- Written in Bone by Sally Walker
- Mission Control- This is Apollo by Andrew Chaikin (it would be very interesting if this book appeared on the Caldecott list).
- The Frog Scientist by Pamela Turner
- Marching for Freedom by Elizabeth Partridge (could up end on the Newbery list too).
To see my previous prediction posts, try my last minute picks and my earlier choices for 2009. I also predicted Trouble by Gary Schmidt early on, but alas. Here are my predictions from 2008 and my scorecard.
Congratulations to all the lucky people who recieve those 6 am life changing phone calls. Hopefully, the winners don't live in California... like Brian Selznick and Neil Gaiman, they'll get their phone calls at 3 am.
I can't wait to see what happens in a few hours.
Hey, look! What's that over there on the sidebar? A bird? A plane? Nope. A new poll! Actually two new polls... which ALA award winners are you the happiest about and which ones shocked your shorts off.
Update: How did I do? The ALSC award announcements are here, and the YALSA announcements are here.
Got an opinion? I'd love to hear it.